LIMITED TIME SEASONAL BUY v2 · SIZE CURVE CORRECTED

TCT4000 · TCT4501 Q3 2026 Seasonal Launch

Neo Fern · Citadel · Onyx (6 SCs, 33 line items) · Glorify Cambodia · Fast Boat 106d LT · PO cut Mon 2026-06-01 · DC ready Tue 2026-09-15 · On-sale Mon 2026-09-21 (W39) · 12-week window through 2026-12-07

Overview

Demand & Timeline

Buy Allocation

Headline ask

Buy 43,234 units across 6 SCs (TCT4000 + TCT4501 in NFN/CIT/ONYX), vendor Glorify Cambodia, Fast Boat 106d LT, blended FOB $2.42/unit ($104,778 invoice), Layer 1 landed investment $148,784, projected 12-wk revenue at P50 $950,527, ROI pre-marketing 444%.

v1 → v2 change log · size-curve correction

What changed: Re-derived size curves from broader comp pool. F3 v1 used Oct 2025 cohort only (n=5 SCs, 4,263u of signal) — that's correct for the heat curve but too narrow for the size curve, which is invariant to launch month. v2 pools all TCT4000 comps with ≥5K units of clean-week signal (n=10 SCs, 340,487u of signal) and all TCT4501 comps ≥1.5K units (n=9 SCs, 32,829u). Methodology: units-weighted aggregation, S excluded for TCT4501 per L0.

Headline result: TCT4000 L share 31.4% → 37.2% (+5.8pp); XL share 31.9% → 26.8% (−5.1pp). L now exceeds XL by 10.4pp across all 3 TCT4000 SCs — matches Jon's stated intuition and matches TCT4000CARBON NOOS reference (200K units of signal, L>XL by 10.1pp).

What's conserved: per-SC×Week forecast totals (exact, Δ=0); per-color subtotals (CIT +1u, NFN/ONYX unchanged); per-style totals (TCT4000 +3u, TCT4501 −2u). Layer 1 $ drift +$37.56 (+0.025%) is structurally inherent to mix-shifting at 3XL premium — accepted per Jon decision 2026-05-26.

Metric	v1	v2	Δ
Launch PO units	43,233	43,234	+1
Layer 1 landed	$148,746.92	$148,784.48	+$37.56
P50 writeoff ROI	444.02%	443.88%	-0.14pp
P10 writeoff mkt @20% CM	$160,805	$160,768	$-38

PO Units

43,234

33 line items · clears 5K MOQ via cross-style aggregation

Layer 1 Invest (sunk)

$148,784

landed COGS at FOB×1.42 · capital at risk

12-wk Revenue (P50)

$950,527

43,219 units × blended ASP $21.99

ROI pre-marketing (P50)

444%

GP $660K on $149K invest · kill gate PASS

Two-layer cost model

LAYER 1 — PO INVESTMENT (FIXED AT CUT)

FOB invoice (vendor)$104,777.80

Landed COGS @ FOB × 1.42$148,784.48

Avg landed / unit (blend)$3.44

3XL premium · TCT4000 / TCT4501$4.12 / $4.97

LAYER 2 — VARIABLE FULFILLMENT (PER UNIT SOLD)

Shipping$1.40

Pick & pack$1.10

Transaction fee (3.5% × ASP)$0.76 / $0.84

L2 total / unit · TCT4000 / TCT4501$3.26 / $3.34

L1 $3.44

Ship $1.40

P&P $1.10

Txn $0.80

Gross Profit / unit ~$15.28

Risk panel — ROI & marketing affordability across scenarios

Scenario × leftover treatment	Revenue	GP pre-mkt	ROI	Max mkt @10% CM	Max mkt @20% CM	Max mkt @30% CM	Max mkt @40% CM
P10 · full write-off worst credible	$475,263	$255,820	172%	$208,294	$160,768	$113,241	$65,715
P10 · markdown ladder downside w/ladder rescue	$848,604	$561,990	378%	$477,130	$392,269	$307,409	$222,549
P50 · markdown ladder central case	$950,786	$660,638	444%	$565,560	$470,481	$375,402	$280,324
P50 · write-off (arch §7 spec) kill-gate per arch	$950,527	$660,425	444%	$565,373	$470,320	$375,267	$280,215
P90 · sells out W8 upside; lost sales 43K units	$950,857	$660,707	444%	$565,621	$470,536	$375,450	$280,364

Markdown ladder distribution (Jon-tunable): 50% sells full price wks 13-23 · 30% sells at 30%-off wks 24-35 · 15% sells at 50%-off wks 36-51 · 5% writes off wk 52+. Per methodology §3, 20% CM is the hurdle — at worst credible (P10 + full write-off) the launch still affords $160,768 marketing ($7.44/unit sold) and clears 20% CM.

Investment thesis

A $148,784 Layer 1 commitment covers 43,234 units across 6 SCs and 3 seasonal colors, sized to a 12-week plan window per methodology §11. The Q3 2026 cohort heat curve (Method 2, Oct 2025 anchor) projects ~$951K revenue at P50 with 100% sell-through and 444% pre-marketing ROI.

Downside discipline: even at P10 (half-velocity) with full write-off of leftover, the launch yields $256K gross profit (172% ROI) and supports $161K marketing spend at the 20% CM gate. Markdown ladder rescues ~$373K of P10 leftover revenue if velocity disappoints.

Upside risk: at P90 (2× velocity), launch stocks out at W8 — 4 weeks before window end, before BFCM peaks at W10. 43K units of uncapped demand would be lost. This is the explicit tradeoff for 12-wk P50 sizing (methodology §11 — never size to longer window for Limited-Time).

Weekly demand & sell-through — P10 / P50 / P90

Bars = uncapped weekly demand by scenario. Lines = cumulative sell-through % against 43,234u PO base. Dashed annotation at W10 = BFCM week (calendar-aligned +1.89× on TCT4000 / +1.37× on TCT4501 cohort lifts). P90 stocks out at W8 — no further sales possible despite uncapped demand of 17K units at W10.

Cumulative revenue vs. Layer 1 investment

L1 investment ($148,784) is crossed by W4 at P50 / W6 at P10. Every dollar past breakeven is gross profit (subject to L2 variable + marketing). P90 crosses breakeven at W2.

Launch timeline

Milestone	Date	Note
PO cut (vendor commit)	Mon 2026-06-01	$149K landed locked at cut
Production complete	~2026-07-31	+60 days from PO
FB transit complete	~2026-09-05	+36 days transit (Fast Boat)
DC ready (sellable)	Tue 2026-09-15	+10 days receiving · 6-day buffer to on-sale
On-sale W1	Mon 2026-09-21	W39 2026 · launch live
BFCM (forecast peak)	Mon 2026-11-23	W10 of launch · calendar-aligned lift
12-wk window close	Mon 2026-12-07	W50 · P50 sells through ~100%
Markdown 30%-off triggers	~Mar 2027	Wk 24 post-launch · methodology §2
Markdown 50%-off triggers	~Jun 2027	Wk 36 post-launch
Write-off / liquidate	~Sep 2027	Wk 52+

PO units by SC

Size mix (launch-wide)

Color totals (cross-style)

Color	Units	MCQ 3K	Landed $
CIT	15,344	✓ 5.1×	$52,805
NFN	13,945	✓ 4.6×	$47,990
ONYX	13,945	✓ 4.6×	$47,990
LAUNCH TOTAL	43,234	✓ aggregate clears MOQ & MCQ	$148,784

Full PO grid — SC × Size v2 · L > XL for TCT4000

Style	Color	S	M	L	XL	2XL	3XL	SC TOTAL
TCT4000	CIT	535	2,736	5,050	3,642	1,279	335	13,577
TCT4000	NFN	486	2,487	4,590	3,310	1,162	305	12,340
TCT4000	ONYX	486	2,487	4,590	3,310	1,162	305	12,340
TCT4501	CIT	—	192	558	623	301	93	1,767
TCT4501	NFN	—	175	507	566	273	84	1,605
TCT4501	ONYX	—	175	507	566	273	84	1,605
LAUNCH TOTAL		1,507	8,252	15,802	12,017	4,450	1,206	43,234

TCT4501 S pruned (1.5% empirical share, ~22u/SC operationally pointless). All TCT4000 sizes carried per L0 directive ("let the data guide us"). 3XL carries +23% FOB premium baked into Layer 1. v2 size mix correction (vs v1): TCT4000 L now exceeds XL by ~1,280u per SC (NFN/ONYX) and 1,408u (CIT) — reverses v1's XL>L which contradicted historical NOOS reference data.

Decision asks — confirm before PO submit

Vendor

Glorify (Cambodia)

Ship mode

Fast Boat · 106d total LT

PO cut date

Mon 2026-06-01

DC ready

Tue 2026-09-15

FOB / unit (S-2XL)

TCT4000 $2.35 · TCT4501 $2.85

FOB / unit (3XL premium)

TCT4000 $2.90 · TCT4501 $3.50

ASP (D2C history trailing 4wk)

TCT4000 $21.74 · TCT4501 $23.94

MOQ (per SKU)

5,000 · cleared via cross-style aggregation (Jon authorized)

MCQ (per color)

3,000 · cleared via color sharing across TCT4000+TCT4501

Forecast scaling method

F4 Method 2 (Oct 2025 cohort heat curve, BFCM calendar-aligned)

Size curve method (v2)

Pooled ≥5K-unit comps, units-weighted (separated from heat curve cohort)

CM hurdle

≥ 20% with marketing as plug (methodology §3)

ROI hurdle

Not specified at intake; P10+writeoff yields 172% pre-marketing

Known caveats (from handoff §8)

F4 BFCM lift conservative. Calendar-aligned cohort-decline base used. Real BFCM may pop harder — stress-test by ×1.2 on W10/W11 to gauge PO sensitivity.
Onyx scale override is a judgment call. Cohort-data default 9,893; Jon override 12,347 (match NFN, dark-color popularity prior). If Onyx underperforms, ~5,000 TCT4000 + 640 TCT4501 ONYX units become markdown candidates.
Onyx size mix: v2 evaluated NOOS-dark (CARBON+DHVNAVY, 203K units of signal) as a potential Onyx-specific override. Max divergence vs primary curve = 0.69pp — well within the 2pp threshold. Conclusion: ONYX inherits the same TCT4000 curve as NFN/CIT (no color-specific override).
TCT4501DHTEMP low-confidence flag propagated through F5 (envelope widened for TCT4501). No remaining downstream impact at B-series.
D2C demand history boundary 2024-12-30. T5 directional comps censored (no impact on B-series; uses forecast pkl directly).
Per-SKU MOQ vendor confirmation. Cross-style aggregation accepted at intake; if vendor enforces per-SKU 5K on TCT4501 (smallest line 84u, smallest SC total 1,605u), per-color bump may apply.